The first interim emissions values under Australia’s New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) are starting to draw a line between the auto brands sitting on credits and the brands sitting on exposure, with accounting and auditing firm BDO warning the fallout may end up on dealer balance sheets if automakers push electric vehicles (EVs) harder than what the market is ready to absorb.
Presenting at an Australian Automotive Dealer Association (AADA) event this morning, BDO laid out an early scoreboard from the 2025 interim emissions value (IEV) period , and it shows some clear winners.
The data from BDO showsBYD accumulated 6,282,824 credits for the 39,603 car imports of **Toyota*** earned 2,8090.625 (115 and504 imported), while TeSla gained 2,212,093 from 13,907 importations.
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Also on the credit side were Kia, Geely and VW (pictured), Chery & Ford, GWM/Haval in SAIC, Isuzu Ute, BMW; Polestar, Zeekr and Volvo.
Mazda was shown 508,517 liability units, Nissan with 215,261 Subaru with 139,635 and Hyundai with 84,563 on the other side of the ledger.
That liability also included a theoretical per-vehicle exposure figure attached to BDO’s table, which includes $661 per vehicle for Mazda, $776 for Nissan, $529 for Subaru and $106 for Hyundai.
Further down the list were Honda at $144 per car, Land Rover at $273, Mahindra at $597, KGM at $767, Porsche at $1012 and GM for $2122.
Ferrari pictured at the exotic end was $7308 per vehicle Aston Martin $6608, Rolls-Royce $6613 Maserati $2342 and Alfa Romeo $2081.
Across the liability table, BDO’s average worked out at $471 per car. And that does not mean they are being charged with a bill today for these brands, but it isn’t the case of s.
The closing slides from one of BDO’s closing slide stated that “non-compliant OEMs have until December 31, 2027 to reduce their 2025 IEV to zero or below.” Banking credit cards can be for up to three years or sold to other brands.
But the direction of travel is obvious.
It’s already the 2026 IEV measurement period that imposes stricter CO2 limits than 2025, before they continue to ramp up until 2029 so pressure on auto brands is only going to be high.
And BDO’s modelling of the NVES credit market is where things start to get interesting.
BDO 1725 IEV period generated on one slide, according to BDA. A total of 16 million credit units and 1,217,811 liability units were issued by . This includes up to $60, based on the maximum $50 penalty per liability unit. NVES fines are 9 million in potential penalties for brands who do nothing to offset their position.
From there, BDO calculates a mathematical floor of $3.55 per credit.
The other approach is that a second scenario assumes no credit will be available to market, as certain companies are likely to keep the credits in stock for future deficits. According to BDO, “the amount of credits that we have available may be closer to 10 on that basis.” It increases the implied value to $5, boosted by 3 million, which is used as an example of how s can be. credit 87 per .
BDO, based on the example of BYD, then calculates the financial benefit from selling credits could be anywhere between $562 and $972 per vehicle imported over the same IEV period.
That is a meaningful number in any market, but especially in one where dealer margins are already under pressure.
And that is the real story here.
Not only does BDO say NVES, it is a compliance problem for OEMs. It is NVES’s “new product strategy, stock mix, incentives and pricing” statement that the dealer network will be where those decisions are first to appear.
In one of the firm’s summary slides, most OEMs have already voted their battery-electric and hybrid vehicle strategies to reduce the impact of NVES; that market demand for those products will directly link with dealer profitability.
The problem is the market is not moving evenly.
EV market share reached 12 in another BDO slide, which showed a further BDA slide of e-market share. In February, 2 per cent of EV share is the year-to-date one and 10 percent are for each year. Per cent 5 per. cent – i.e.
In the same way hybrids have accounted for 22 per cent of market share, up from 15per cent last June (compared to 67 percent) in non-hybrid petrol and diesel vehicles.
That matters, because BDO’s presentation argues that the EV sales growth Australia is seeing is heavily concentrated.
Chinese brands are ‘playing the game’ in its slide deck, which says that 81 per cent of EV sales growth is being driven by China-branded companies. A further 16 per cent are Tesla’s (16 percent) and just 3 of the other brands combined accounts for all brand names. 1 per cent 0 percent.
A second BDO slides follow, arguing that the market for Tesla is effectively closer to 3 and everyone outside the Chinese brands has an addressable EV market. total EV share at 10 per cent, but 0 Per cent. 5 per cent) .
In plain English, the market for EVs is present but it is not evenly distributed across all brands. dealers are at risk of BDO that’s what.
The slide titled “BEV strategies are creating an economic imbalance in supply and demand” says that petrol vehicles are still transacting at high levels with low average incentives, while diesel vehicle volumes are being supported by higher incentives without blowing out margins.
Hybrids still hold up too much to a phraser like . Standard hybrids transact at 101. BDO’s slide shows standard hybrid in the , which is shown here as well with its slides and does not show that they are normal or non-transacting (e.g. average retail price of 96 per cent recommended by .
Battery-electric vehicles are a different story.
The figures compiled by BDO showed EVs had an average incentive of $2560 and a sales-weighted RRP of $63,443, or the average transaction price was $62,743 or 98. 71 per cent of RRP, which s.
Similarly, it says the RRP that is sold for 8 pounds (EV sales-weighted) has dropped by 8, according to the same slide. transactions have fallen 5 per cent in six months, 0 percent for and a drop of. A per cent, 0 percent (low price points from new competitors doing much of the heavy-lifting) and.
EV demand has collapsed, that’s long enough to say that . But it does suggest that pricing is still doing most of the work, if not all.
And even NVES pushes more brands to lean harder into EVs than their own customer base is ready for, BDO’s argument is that dealers would end up staring at higher holding costs, lower discounting and weaker front-end margins just to clear stock.
With another BDO slide about dealer performance that says new-car gross profit per unit is already in a bad trend at $2250 to $3980, that inventory management with an EV focus should be priority and that the warning becomes more relevant when read alongside this warning.
Similarly, BDO also claims the brands best placed to deal with NVES are those that have strong market share, mature dealer networks, better profitability and developed service operations.
This slides focuses on large mature networks like Toyota’s, Mazda’S and Ford’d as well with dealers that have deep roots in their main market area (PMA), will be better placed to protect against price increases and supply constraints.
The position of smaller auto brands with thin market share and immature dealer networks may not be the same place. And that is why the first IEV tables matter, so much so that s are not a part of this equation. They also provide the brands with a buffer, the brand’s early exposure and size of the financial incentive for one group to sell credits to the other.
What is more clear next to ? It is a manageable cost of doing business when the credit market falls near the bottom of BDO’s range.
The pressure is heightened to either pay competitors for credits, the government or push even harder on EV and hybrid mix to return under the line if it increases materially.
All those options are painless, none of them being a . That means NVES is no longer a policy discussion somewhere above dealers, and for dealers that’s the case.
The type of cars being sent to showrooms, the price needed to move them and profit margin left after they are gone is starting to be shaped by it.
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