Many ways of doing so have ‘unprecedented in this year’, not least because Australia’s first mandatory new-vehicle CO2 emissions legislation came into effect and at least half a dozen new Chinese auto brands were introduced locally.
Yet both those major developments are still not fully realised, so 2026 will be a test for the automotive industry — in terms of their full impact; for those and many other reasons.
Yet, there are still a lot more problems with the Australian new-vehicle market than just new Chinese brands and the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard; it is always accompanied by some surprises.
We don’t have a crystal ball, but here are some of our predictions for the new year.
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Alborz Fallah
Some legacy brands will realise that Australia is not for them and begin plans to pull out.
But it’s a very clear that some Japanese and European brands are under serious trouble in Australia (and globally) without name names, and they are being decimated on all fronts.
You are a car company that makes no attractive cars in this very competitive market, and you want to charge more than the Chinese; your life in our market will be very, extremely limited.
Marton Pettendy
With at least six new Chinese auto brands joining an already-saturated auto market this year, and a number of more to follow next year; some of them – and many of the more well established marques could be forced to close shop in 2026.
But the inexorable swelling order of big Chinese brands such as BYD, Chery and GWM, each with ambitious local sales and market share targets, should not be going on the back side of their relentless new-product surmise.
This means that market leaders like Toyota, Ford and Mazda will likely be left with a smaller portion of the overall pie – and in the lucrative ute segment which by the end of next year will have more competitors and an increasingly diverse range of options than Australians had ever been offered.
William Stopford
Chinese brands aren’t over the top of their lexicon. Automakers are looking to export markets for profits in search of profits, and the Chinese domestic market remains cutthroat, with automakers still seeking out a lucrative business model. We are much smaller than, say, Europe or the US but we have no pesky tariffs to contend with while our market is very small.
China’s brands are largely already building cars to meet our safety standards, and almost all of them have the same hubris that they can unseat brands which were here for decades.
Well, I don’t just say that a number of as-yet unconfirmated Chinese brands will be here in 2026; but I also predict the market share for Australia’s top brand (Tamilo) – will barely hold its ground.
We’re going to be watching out for sure, smaller, weaker players but we may be at a point where the Chinese brands have done enough damage on them and will start eating each other.
Toyota will sit sat pretty, at least for the most part, all the while — thanks to its huge dealership network, strong reputation and legion of often conservative, rusted-on buyers.
Chinese have climbed into the top 10 but it is still unclear how long will it take for one of their brands to crack the bottom three… especially when they’re now fighting with each other.
James Wong
But I think that the European brands could return to our market next year with Australia’s new emissions rules and pending free trade agreements, which means we have an aggressive comeback in our future.
Given pricing and regulatory pressure (or lack thereof) that has long been a barrier for the Euro brands here, we could see the gap between Europeans and Asian brands in 2026 – and it’s already happening.
Honestly the fact that Skoda (likely) can import Enyaq for less than an equivalent Toyota or even some Chinese-sourced competition is just crazy. But, as other Japanese and Korean players are forced to hike prices for things such as Euro 6 emissions mandates and the like, we might see a market change.
With its low-budget electric and hybrid options, Renault has made great home for the country’s back inroads; the Volkswagen Group is a stock of new products on the road. But not to mention BMW, which is already on the top 10 of the Australian EV sales race.
I’ll be interested to see where the market is standing in 12 months’ time.
Damion Smy
The Australian top five is cracked by BYD as it cracks the Australian . a lower margin, Toyota on top with ‘lower margins’. A number of newer brands fold under a umbrella. NVES is back on the ground after pressure from automakers to support federal government . A Mustang GT is axed (buy one now) by s. Taking over Bathurst Toyota wins the . PIastri F1 becomes champ in .
Ben Zachariah
More turmoil in the auto industry, born from tariffs, supply-chain issues, geopolitical disputes, and an ever-growing, ever-more-competent and confident China.
A few large legacy car companies may close their doors, while others could leave the Australian market because of growing pressure from newcomer brands. It may have been the beginning of Citroen, but perhaps only as a start for .
Josh Nevett
The return of physical controls to car interiors.
Minimalism is all well and good until it compromises functionality, which is exactly what has happened with new car interiors.
In burying key vehicle functions like the climate controls in a screen, manufacturers have made cars more distracting and therefore more dangerous than they should be.
Thankfully, it seems that some of the larger automakers have listened to our constant complaints. VW will now return dash switches for future models, while BMW’s head of ADAS recently told childcareman.xyz ‘We look forward to this. When you press a button, we see that the longer you hold it, the more your eyes are off the road and the dangerous things become. Paraphrast.
This has also been addressed by Australian independent vehicle safety authority ANCAP, which provides physical buttons for key driver controls such as the horn, indicators, hazard lights, windscreen wipers and headlights that are available in its new safety testing protocols.
With that in mind, here’s hoping that buttons and switches make a comeback in 2026.
Max Davies
Brands are going either to be shape up or ship out, as they’re supposed to look like a brand. A plethora of Chinese brands entered the Australian market in 2025, and while some are probably going to be last, others are shaking things up.
MG and GWM are good examples of what I’m getting at Brands like this? While both were relatively early to the Australian market among their compatriots, they have since developed a number of very different approaches.
MG quickly rocketed up the sales charts with very cheap cars. Although some of its latest models are still finessing, the media consensus is that even if they are improving their performance, it’s not just an improvement in terms of feedback and criticism.
Similarly, GWM (meanwhile) received much of the same feedback on its cars and responded by setting up permanent residence at the former Holden proving ground at Lang Lang in Victoria.
Local ride-and-handling tunes for affordable Chinese cars? Yes please, and kudos for making it happen.
Eventually, it’s like GWM’S that tell you whether a brand is in for the long run. But for new brands, players such as GAC – which has co-developed cars with Toyota are already receiving relatively high praise at launch.
If brands like these seem to be sleeping on their laurels, how can they avoid the problem of others? Just as relevant for a number of non-Chinese brands too. No one of the established players are immune to being outpaced, outclassed and overshadowes by all those that play in China.
Sean Lander
With the new – in with the brand new, we will see several newcomer brands fizzle and die; however, these are replaced by similarly shaped and sized brands offering the same thing with slightly different trimming.
There are such large Chinese car markets as the ‘failable to get things wrong here’, where the more traditional marques can’t be found.
Some of the 2024/25 arrivals will go away and be replaced by another fucky name brand, expect to see some disappearances. Oh, and ute sales will still dominate the market for UTE sales.
Thanks for reading The CarExpert teams predictions for 2026
