This is the question that arises every time the price of crude oil charges towards US$100 a barrel if he has only 158 bld, what does it mean? How come Australians are paying more than $2 for 987 litres? The pump is 00 A L (a litre) and as of today, Brent crude has been trading at US$100. 21 a barrel, .
crude itself, at exactly US$100 a barrel, is to 62. 9 US cents per raw litre. Using the Reserve Bank’s current $0/USD exchange rate of currency, which is currently in effect for . 70, which converts to A$142. Or 89, or the barrel of is 7 a barrel. The equivalent of 8 Australian cents per litre is refining, freight, storage, wholesaling, retailing or tax.
If the real Brent price is US$100, then use that exact cost of . The cost of raw crude is around 63 per cent, rather than the round-number scenario 21. 0 US cents per litre or 90. 0 Australian cents a litre.
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While that barrel-to-bowser math is a good hook, it breaks almost immediately in the real world because Australia is effectively ‘price taker’ in refined fuel.
Local petrol prices are based on Singapore Mogas 95, according to the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP), and diesel is driven by Singapore Gasoil with 10ppm of sulfur; there is usually one- to two weeks delay before moves in those regional benchmarks appear in Australian wholesale prices.
The fact is, that Australia has only two operating refineries left Ampol’s Lyttoon refinery in Queensland and Viva Energy’S Geelong refineRY in Victoria. The local market is still heavily influenced by imported refined product pricing, even before you get to transport, terminal and retail costs.
The simple US$100 barrel math
| Item | Value |
| — | — |
| Brent scenario | US$100.00/bbl |
| Standard oil barrel | 158.987L |
| US$100 crude only | 62.9 US cpl |
| Actual Brent close converted at AUD/USD 0.7007 | A$143.01/bbl |
| Actual Brent close in A$ terms | 90.0 cpl |
Why one barrel does not become 159 litres of petrol
In this debate, the first mistake is to treat crude oil as if it becomes straight into the same volume of petrol. It does not it. An a refinery splits bowed barrel into petrol, diesel and jet fuel (LPG), petrochemical feedstocks, asphalt and other outputs. Processing gain can even cause total product output to be larger than the original input volume.
A clean example of the 2025 average barrel produced 45. 9 per cent finished motor gasoline, 30 Per cent completed motor fuel. 1 per cent distillate fuel oil and 0per cent 11 percent . ‘Priced per cent, Kerosene-type jet fuel with total product output equal to 105. 9 per cent of the original barrel – or nine percent) .
On an 158-gram . This equates to about 73-litres, 987-liter basis. POTUS 0 litres petrol-like product 47 liters, 17 litres and 7 liters of distillate,17 lb. It is 5 litres of jet fuel (the balance between other products and processing gain) with the balance being used by , but also for its own personal consumption.
That’s not an Australia-specific refinery recipe, but the local direction is similar. Ampol cites Lyttenon’s 2025 production slate was 43 per cent petrol, 48 percent middle distillates and 9 per Cent gasoline. 0 per cent other products.
But even locally the barrel is being split across several fuel streams rather than a neat line of petrol litres.
What one barrel turns into
| Product from one barrel | Yield | Approx. litres |
| — | — | — |
| Finished motor gasoline | 45.9% | 73.0L |
| Distillate fuel oil | 30.0% | 47.7L |
| Kerosene-type jet fuel | 11.0% | 17.5L |
| Other products plus processing gain | 19.0% | 30.2L |
| Total refined products | 105.9% | 168.4L |
What the current Australian price path looks like
In order to describe the value of motorists, it is better if you follow the current price stack rather than jump straight from crude to pump. National average price of 219 per cent in the latest AIP weekly data. 5cpl petrol & 245 45 week to end March 15, 2026, 6cpl for diesel in the week ending on.
There were 194 wholesale averages of . Benz 4cpl petrol and 227? Diesel 8cpl. Brent, according to the same AIP reports, is 87 at. Singapore Mogas 95 at 123, 9 Australian cents per L. At 160, Singapore Gasoil 10ppm at 6cpl and 6 cmpL. 6cpl, .
It means that the transition from Brent to Singapore petrol benchmark was 35 for diesel, which is a move of parodyrs for petrol. 7cpl . It was another 70. 8cpl 8 cmp L. The transition from wholesale to retail was 25. 1cpl . The transfer was a much larger 72-years from Brent to Singapore Gasoil for diesel, which is referred to as ‘the jump of the carr” for Diesel. 7cpl, then another 67. Wholesale 2cpl and 17cpml. retail and 8cpl from wholesale to retail – . Diesel was 26. Acpl dearer than petrol in the new national averages – 1cpml per cent of s. They are gross pricing steps, not neat profit lines.
On that point AIP is clear. According to Mogas 95 for petrol, shipping and taxes account for nearly the entire wholesale price; it notes that landed costs and margins include quality premiums, insurance and loss (warfage, terminal operating costs), administration, marketing and corporate and government charges.
It also argues the same point on diesel. AIP says the retail-wholesale gap still has to be addressed at the end of this retail, claiming that land transport, administration, marketing, wages, rent and utilities are still required.
Australia’s current crude-to-bowser price path
| Fuel | Stage | Price (cpl) | Move from previous stage |
| — | — | — | — |
| Petrol | Brent crude equivalent | 87.9 | |
| Petrol | Singapore Mogas 95 | 123.6 | +35.7 |
| Petrol | Australian wholesale average | 194.4 | +70.8 |
| Petrol | Australian retail average | 219.5 | +25.1 |
| Diesel | Brent crude equivalent | 87.9 | |
| Diesel | Singapore Gasoil 10ppm | 160.6 | +72.7 |
| Diesel | Australian wholesale average | 227.8 | +67.2 |
| Diesel | Australian retail average | 245.6 | +17.8 |
These are the latest AIP weekly averages Brent/Mogas/Gasoil prices based on week to Friday, March 13, 2026 and retail/wholesale average for the week ended March 15, 20 26. AIP is also a member of the one-to-two-week gap from Singapore pricing into Australian wholesale prices.
How much does the government take?
Since the fuel stack is published and formula-driven, tax has been one of the ‘cleanest’ parts of its fuel pile. ATO lowered its excise duty rates from February 3, 2026 to 52, both petrol and diesel excie. A is 6 cents per litre. GST still stands at 10 per cent.
at a new national average petrol price of 219, which s say is the latest. 5cpl, GST – 19 works out to be . 95cpl () Adding 52 add ? excise 6cpl and the total government take is 72 cpml. 55cpl – . It’s about 33-year-old that means that. Around 146 per cent of the petrol price is tax, which means one in cent for the average petrol cost. To cover all else – 95cpl for 95.cpml to.
The national average diesel price of 245 at the latest, . A 6cpl, GST is 22 to. 33cpl. What is the same 52 ? The total government take is 74cpl excise and 6cpml Exciser. 93cpl . That’s about 30 , that is about a dozen. It is about 170 per cent of the pump price, 5 percent. The non-tax stack 67cpl for .
Government take at current average pump prices
| Fuel | Retail price (cpl) | Excise (cpl) | GST (cpl) | Total government take (cpl) | Government share |
| — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Petrol | 219.5 | 52.6 | 19.95 | 72.55 | 33.1% |
| Diesel | 245.6 | 52.6 | 22.33 | 74.93 | 30.5% |
Calculations use the AIP national average retail prices and the ATO’s current excise and GST guidance.
What counts as ‘margin’ and what does not
In Australia, the ACCC publishes the most accurate public breakdown of retail petrol prices (and it is very careful with its terms). In December quarter of 2025, the average petrol price for the five largest cities was 180 per cent. 4cpl . The ACCC blamed 76-years-old . 1cpl to Mogas 95, 20. 0cpl for all other wholesale costs and margins, 66. Excise and wholesale GST 4cpl, 17cpml; 16 c.pll; It refers to 9cpl as the gross indicative retail difference.
But that last number is not net profit, and it’s not a to say. The Gross indicative retail difference (along with both the cost and profit of retail operating costs) is a “very broad indicator of gross retail margins,” according to the ACCC. It also notes that prices, costs and profits differ greatly from site to site; timing differences between wholesale and retail prices can be used to shift the figure around. It is a very useful indicator in other words, but it is not ‘clean bowser-profit number’.
The ACCC said the annual gross indicative retail difference in calendar 2025 was 16 per cent for a more general context. Just 0cpl, just 0- 3cpml. Paraphrasing 2cpl above the 10-year average inflation-adjusted 10 years ago. But that is a good reminder, as it reminds us when you’re going to be afraid headline pump price doesn’t automatically mean retailers are suddenly minting money on every litre.
ACCC’s official petrol price breakdown (Dec 2025)
| Component | cpl | Share of 180.4cpl retail price |
| — | — | — |
| Mogas 95 | 76.1 | 42.2% |
| Other wholesale costs and margins | 20.0 | 11.1% |
| Excise and wholesale GST | 66.4 | 36.8% |
| Gross indicative retail difference | 17.9 | 9.9% |
| Total retail petrol price | 180.4 | 100.0% |
Major exception The bar chart of the ACCC reaches 180, or so; important nuance 4cpl with 66. 4cpl for excise and wholesale GST. In addition, the watchdog notes that total excise and GST were 68. After retail GST is added, 0cpl will be able to add a .
What public company disclosures actually show
A wall quickly smashed up when you look for a neat public number to the operating margin of ‘BP’ or.Shell’ in Australia, and then search for an Australian-based company called ’BP’.
According to BP, there was anunderlying “replacement cost profit” of US$7. At a group level, 5 billion for 2025 was reported by Shell as “products adjusted earnings” of US$2″. 177 billion.
Such real numbers are global or segment-level disclosures, not a clean Australian cents-per–litre bowser margin. In Australia, Viva Energy provides licence for Shell-branded fuels in Australia.
Local public filings from Ampol and Viva Energy are more useful, because they describe the revenue of downstream businesses in Australia; however, even then you have to separate retail earnings from refining margin (and fuel margin from convenience-store economics).
The figures of Ampol’s convenience retail business include combined fuel and shop margins, as well as. The same is the case of Viva Energy’s figures, and separately described Geelong refining performance. The utter lack of those numbers is an indirect substitute for a pure “profit per litri at the pump” figure.
Ampol and Shell public disclosures
| Company | Metric | FY2025 value | Why it matters |
| — | — | — | — |
| Ampol | Convenience retail sales volumes | 3.49BL | Shows the scale of retail fuel sales |
| Ampol | Fuel and shop margin excl site costs | $1,244.2m | Gross margin before site costs |
| Ampol | Site costs | $383.1m | Cost of running the retail network |
| Ampol | Fuel and shop margin | $861.2m | After site costs, before broader overheads |
| Ampol | Convenience Retail EBIT | $373.7m | Segment earnings, not pure fuel margin |
| Ampol | Lytton Refiner Margin | US$10.34/bbl | Refinery economics, not retail margin |
| Ampol | Lytton EBITDA | $226.9m | Refining earnings |
| Viva Energy | Fuel sales | 5146 ML | Scale of fuel sold |
| Viva Energy | Fuel and shop margin | $1633m | Combined gross margin |
| Viva Energy | Convenience & Mobility EBIT (RC) | $61.9m | Retail-focused earnings |
| Viva Energy | Geelong refining margin | US$9.61/bbl | Refinery economics |
| Viva Energy | Refining EBITDA (RC) | $93.0m | Geelong refining earnings |
| Viva Energy | Refining EBITDA after operating costs | A$2.5/bbl | Approximate post-cost per-barrel result |
These are the most relevant local public numbers, but while they may be useful contexts, they do not direct Australian pump-margin disclosures.
The most useful is Ampol’s Lytton disclosure, which demonstrates how a refinery margin is constructed. It included a Singapore average margin of US$13 in 2025, which was the weighted average for s. Pronounce 54 a barrel, US$5 product freight. 50 and a good US$1 premium for s. 04, whose price premium of US$7 was landed crudely. A US$0 loss for yield is 55, a risk of s. US$1 hydrocarbon costs related to 97 and other similar cost of . 21. It also produced the US$10 reported Lytton Refiner Margin from that phrase. 34 a barrel This is again, a refining number (not euthanized bowser-profit number) and not an anchorserser–profit.
Viva Energy tells the same story from the Geelong side of . In its report it reported a Geelong refining margin of US$9 per cent. FY2025 61 a barrel, or 62. o But if energy, operating, supply and corporate costs were taken into account, refining EBITDA was A$93 once the cost of energy (and other companies) had been absorbed. The company had a total of about A$2 million, or 0 million (about A£2 per cent) as ‘0million. 5 a barrel, . That’s a useful reality check on the difference between gross refining margin and the real earnings that go out bottom, according to that.
Why diesel behaves differently
In Australia diesel is not petrol-like. AIP says there is no retail discounting cycle for diesel because only about 25 per cent of diesel is sold through retail outlets, much of that retail volume sells via contracts or fuel cards and most diesel on longer-term terms has been sold in bulk.
This helps explain why diesel can be materially dearer than petrol for long periods of time even if both eventually start from the same crude oil pool. The diesel price is 245 for a new national average in the latest national Averages. 219 vs 6cpl against ? petrol 5cpl for a 26-year-old , with. Premium 1cpl premium for .
But if you’ve ever wondered what a round-number US$100 barrel is for Australia, then you may now have slack off an idea slightly better (or even more confused)?
about 62, at the age of . The equivalent of 9 US cents or 89 US dollars is 9 per cent. The war in the Middle Eeast is affecting the prices Australians are paying at the pump, with 8 Australian cents per raw litre at today’s prices. While Australians obviously don’t buy raw litres of crude, they do purchase refined petrol and diesel that is off Singapore product benchmarks, terminals and service stations (and loaded with excise and GST) and served with.
Fuel prices in Western Sydney in February 2023
That’s obvious, as it is in the recent Australian numbers. 87-a.k., Petrol moves from a Brent equivalent of 88-btwen to ‘Polseyming in the same way as 86-year-old’ (i.e. 9cpl to Singapore Mogas 95 123 6cpl, then to average wholesale petrol at 194. 4cpl and a retail petrol price of 219 per cent at the average. 5cpl – Diesel begins with the same 87-year-old . Jumps to Singapore Gasoil at 160, 9cpl crude oil reference. then to sell diesel at 227, 6cpl. 8cpl, and 245 diesel for retail. 6cpl –
Government shaves off (surprise!) and according to the latest averages, tax is about 72 per cent. 7cpl on petrol and 74cpml, 6c plz. Diesel 9cpl . Everything else has to pay for the high quality product benchmark, shipping, import costs, terminal cost, wholesaling, transport to site, wages, rent and electricity and only then whatever profit is left.
Sources: Reuters Brent close, RBA AUD/USD, ACCC, AIP, public financial reports
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